Those of us that are able to think for ourselves know that we are in the early stages of what will be an interesting election campaign in the lead up to the Queensland State Election, whenever that may be. Though the only one that doesn’t think this is the Premier herself, instead trying to convince us all that it is part of the normal media releases that they put out.
Which brings us to the next question that is anyone’s guess, when will we be heading off to the polls?
I’d be willing to make the prediction that it won’t be held until after the council elections at the end of March. By doing this, she is handing everyone else a free kick as they can claim that this is a premier that is desperate to hold on to power for as long as she can.
An April or May election will give the spin doctors and number crunchers time to judge how much anti-Labor sentiment there is by using the SEQ Council elections as a litmus test for the battle that lays ahead. This will also allow enough time to settle with the report into the 2011 flood due to be handed down in Feb, along with her planned ‘carve up’ of Queensland Health.
Whilst the flood report isn’t likely to contain anything unexpected or fatal for the government, it is bound to cause them a little bit of embarrassment. This and the fact that she has just completed her “12 months later” tour, the wounds that have been reopened would still be too fresh to call a March election.
Predictions.
Election date:
April or May. Even though this will be after the anniversay of the 2009 election, it is still before the June deadline. The party faithful will be relying on Campbell Newman to shoot himself in the foot by making too many heat of the moment promises that he will either retract or won’t be able to deliver. We have seen the start of this with his 400,000 jobs in 6 years promise.
Winners:
Liberal/National Party. As things stand today, it is almost a safe bet to say that the LNP will be the majority party in the Queensland party after the election. How much of a majority will depend on how well Katter’s Australian Party does in getting it’s candidates out into the public view. This isn’t to say that the election will be unwinnable by Labor, as we have seen in previous elections the LNP is more than able to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.
Katter’s Australian Party. I’d be willing to say that there will be a substantial number of protest votes going towards this party with the average voter being disenfranchised by the major parties, and not wanting to vote green after the Federal Carbon Tax fiasco.
Campbell Newman. As long as he is careful about what he says, and doesn’t say anything in the heat of the moment, he will win Ashgrove. Whilst Kate Jones is trying to put up a good fight, most of the electorate hadn’t seen hide nor hair of her prior to Campbell announcing that he was going to contest that seat. Kate and the ALP can bleat about Campbell’s pledge not to go ahead with the Samford/Wardell Rd upgrade, though the sad fact of the matter is that that intersection has been a dog’s breakfast for a number of years, and promising to fix it with an election on the horizon really isn’t fooling anyone.
Andrew Fraser With the election now not being until after February this year, and having served over the 8 year minimum period, he is one of 5 Labor MP’s that will be able to sit back and enjoy their future unemployment with their lifetime pension. Wouldn’t we all love to retire on a pension at 35?
No point in listing the losers, as we know to some extent it will be the Labor Party, and sadly after nearly 20 years Labor mismanagement there will be a lot of pain to come.
Rest assured that once The Premier visits the Governor to dissolve the parliament and call an election, I will be here sifting through the rhetoric to give you an honest opinion of each party’s policies.
